Shares of Tripadvisor fell 22% last month. Can he bounce back?

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Shares of Tripadvisor (NASDAQ
NDAQ
:TRIP), an online travel agency offering reservations for hotels, transportation, accommodation and travel experiences, was down 22% in the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently sits at around $19. Shares of the company traded lower as recession anxiety and rising interest rates swept through the entire travel industry. Wider concern over the health of the global economy and renewed Covid restrictions in parts of China continue to negatively impact TRIP stock. It’s worth mentioning that the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development cut its global growth forecast to 3% this year, down from its previous estimate of 4.5%.

Tripadvisor had a mixed first quarter last month, with revenue up, but revenue falling slightly short of estimates. The company managed to double its revenue year-over-year (year-on-year) to $262 million, thanks to a recovery in the tourism sector in the first quarter. Among its two business segments, Experiences and Dining saw strong improvement, with revenue up nearly 230% year-on-year to $92 million. Hotel, media and platform revenue grew 82% year-on-year. Although the company did not quite reach profitability, it managed to reduce its net loss per share from -$0.59 to -$0.24.

Now, is TRIP stock set to decline in the near term, or do gains seem more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends over the past ten years, there is an 82% chance of a rise in TRIP stock over the next month (twenty-one days scholarship). See our analysis on TRIP stock upside chance for more details.

Calculation of “probability of occurrence” and “probability of increase” using data from the last ten years

[1] Returns of -1.3% or less on a 5 day period 1044 times out of 2515 (42%); Stock rose over the next five days in 532 of those 1,044 cases (51%)

[2] Returns of -22% or less on a 10 day period 41 times out of 2515 (2%); The stock rose over the next 10 days in 24 of those 41 cases (59%)

[3] Returns of -22% or less on a 21 day period 84 times out of 2514 (3%); Stock rose over the next 21 days in 69 of those 84 cases (82%)

It helps to see how your peers compare. TRIP Peers shows how Tripadvisor’s stock compares to its peers on important metrics. You’ll find other useful comparisons for companies in all industries at Peer Comparisons.

Stock prices have fallen precipitously across all sectors over the past few months and we are now in a bear market for the first time since March 2020, when the Covid-19 outbreak triggered a stock market crash. We capture key Dow Jones trends during and after major stock market crashes in our interactive dashboard analysis,’Comparison of stock market crashes.’

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