Will strong results and dealmaking activity take Hyatt stock to the next level?

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    Hyatt shares are up about 8% over the past month (about 21 trading days) and continue to rise about 4% over the past week (five trading days). Hyatt recently reported a strong set of results for the third quarter of 2022, driven by a robust recovery in global travel demand following the easing of Covid-19 restrictions. While adjusted earnings came in at $0.64 per share, stronger than expected, system-wide comparable revenue per available room was up 46% year-over-year to $133, while the US metric rose more than 35% to about $148. The company has also expanded its portfolio and raised its full-year 2022 net room growth forecast to 6.5% on the back of multiple deals. For example, the company partnered with Germany’s Lindner Hotels in a deal that adds more than 30 hotels and 5,500 rooms in seven European countries. Last week, the company agreed to pay a base purchase price of $125 million to purchase Dream Hotel Group’s lifestyle hotel brand and management platform. Investors seem to like these deals as they are relatively low in assets and also target more premium properties that are currently in demand.

    But with Hyatt stock up about 8% over the past month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the short term or is a decline imminent? Judging by historical performance, there is a roughly equal chance of Hyatt stock rising or falling next month. Of the 375 instances over the past 10 years where Hyatt stock saw a 21-day gain of 8% or more, 192 of those instances resulted in H-shares rising in the subsequent one-month period (21 trading days) . This historical pattern reflects 192 out of 375, or about a 51% chance of Hyatt stock rising in the coming month. See our analysis Hyatt Stock Chance of a rise for more details.

    Calculation of ‘Event probability’ and ‘Probability of increase’ based on the data of the last ten years

    • After moving 3.6% or more over five days, the stock rose 48% in the following five days.
    • After moving 5.6% or more in ten days, the stock rose 50% in the following ten days
    • After moving 8% or more over a twenty-one day period, the stock rose 51% in the following twenty-one days.

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